baldilocks

History of the Future (UPDATED)

Today is the 70th Anniversary of the invasion of Poland by the Soviet Union.  Following close on the heels of the invasion of the country by Hitler's Germany on September 1, 1939, this resulted in the disappearance of Poland until the aftermath of the Allied victory in World War II.

Do you think that President Obama knew this history before deciding to break America's agreement with Poland and the Czech Republic?  Neither do I.

But I bet that his puppeteers advisers did.  And I'm 100 percent sure that Vladimir Putin is celebrating.

(Thanks to Gabriel Malor)

PREVIOUSLY: I Can't Decide

UPDATE: Happy Judas Molotov-Ribbentrop Day!   Jules Crittenden notes the bitter irony of events and has some excellent links at the end on the history of World War II's beginning.

UPDATE: Arthur Chrenkoff reminds us of how savage were hallmarks of the the 20th century: the tribal wars and genocides of Europe.

I Can't Decide (UPDATED)

European "vacation":

According to reliable sources, Obama administration officials are on their way to Poland and the Czech Republic to deliver very bad news. The administration intends to cancel completely the missile defense sites that had been promised to these governments by the previous administration. This represents a complete capitulation to Russia's Vladimir Putin, who had demanded that the proposed deployments be halted as a price for improved relations. Ironically, the Obama administration, which is appeasing Russia in the hopes that Moscow will help put pressure on Iran, has made this mammoth concession just a few days after Moscow declared that it had no intention of supporting sanctions against Iran.

So is it racist to think that this last foreign policy move is either the result of mind-boggling stupidity and incompetence or that it's merely the latest tactic in a long line of tactics pointed toward one explicit purpose: to leave this country severely weakened in both the foreign and domestic spheres?

UPDATE: Eastern European missile defense scrapped.

"After an extensive process, I have approved the unanimous recommendations of my secretary of defense and my joint chiefs of staff [sic] to strengthen America's defenses against ballistic-missile attack," President Barack Obama said in an announcement Thursday morning. [snip]

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the decision to abandon the Bush administration's plans came about because of a change in the U.S. perception of the threat posed by Iran.

Mr. Gates said intelligence experts concluded the short- and medium-range missiles were "developing more rapidly than previously projected" in Iran. The findings are a major reversal from the Bush administration, which pushed aggressively to begin construction of the Eastern European system before leaving office in January.

Russia and Iran win. 

Russia on Thursday welcomed the news but said it saw no reason to offer concessions in return. Russian President Dmitry Medvedev threatened last November to station tactical Iskander missiles on Poland's border if the U.S. system was deployed.

"The Bush plans on the missile defense as we knew them until now were nothing more than a provocation of security in the European region," said Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's ambassador to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, in a phone interview.

Do we lose? Time will tell.

Is it racist to say that President Obama doesn't care about preserving the reputation of American reliability, fidelity and integrity? Is it racist to think that the president wants to leave Poland and the Czech Republic open to the schemes and plans of both Russia and Iran?

I think we're past the point of caring whether it is or not.

It Won't Rub Off (UPDATED)

Whoa! During the Moscow trip, many Russian officials refused to shake the president's hand!

What was that about, Cold Warriors? I know that the Russians aren't exactly open-minded about race, but come on! It's the president of the United States.

Or perhaps President Obama is too much the Leftist even for Russians. Too weird.

(Thanks to American Thinker)

UPDATE: Did the Russians Really Snub Obama?

Tales from the Cold War

Liz Cheney, daughter of the former vice president of the United States, repudiates President Obama’s version of the Cold War:

Speaking to a group of students, our president explained it this way: "The American and Soviet armies were still massed in Europe, trained and ready to fight. The ideological trenches of the last century were roughly in place. Competition in everything from astrophysics to athletics was treated as a zero-sum game. If one person won, then the other person had to lose. And then within a few short years, the world as it was ceased to be. Make no mistake: This change did not come from any one nation. The Cold War reached a conclusion because of the actions of many nations over many years, and because the people of Russia and Eastern Europe stood up and decided that its end would be peaceful."

The truth, of course, is that the Soviets ran a brutal, authoritarian regime. The KGB killed their opponents or dragged them off to the Gulag. There was no free press, no freedom of speech, no freedom of worship, no freedom of any kind. The basis of the Cold War was not "competition in astrophysics and athletics." It was a global battle between tyranny and freedom. The Soviet "sphere of influence" was delineated by walls and barbed wire and tanks and secret police to prevent people from escaping. America was an unmatched force for good in the world during the Cold War. The Soviets were not. The Cold War ended not because the Soviets decided it should but because they were no match for the forces of freedom and the commitment of free nations to defend liberty and defeat Communism.

Just so.

With President Obama, it’s to the point where his groveling to and rewriting history for our enemies and frenemies has become so frequent that we are beginning to become complacent in refuting his fantasies. Good thing that pundits like the fearless progeny of Darth Cheney have not.

(Thanks to Drew M. at Ace of Spades HQ. Drew thinks that Miss Cheney and her father should be on the 2012 GOP presidential ticket and, to that end, has a most excellent slogan.)

Of the Bears (Again)

Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey is running a Caption This contest for the following photo snapped during President Obama's pilgrimage visit to Moscow to mend fences (or whatever) with President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

President Obama and President Medvedev bond

I haven't even read the seven pages of comments over there, but at the top of page seven is the winner--there cannot possibly be a better:

Today Georgia. Tomorrow Georgia.

In addition, the wily Vlad saw fit to praise Former President Bush's hospitality--read: class--and wish the latter a happy birthday--yesterday--in a telegram sent right before President Obama's visit.  

During the last years we have been working on strengthening Russia-U.S. cooperation. Although there were differences between our countries, I always valued your openness and sincerity," Putin said, congratulating Bush on his 63rd birthday on July 6.

"With special warmth I recall your hospitality in the Crawford ranch and your family estate in Kennebunkport," Putin wrote, referring to their 2007 meeting at the Bush family vacation home when the two leaders went fishing and ate lobster.

Is the timing mere coincidence?  "Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan."

I wonder what the results of a POTUS appearing to be the world's doormat will be.  Those on the Left believe that it will make the world love us again (sic).  Those on the Right suspect that the supine posture of a POTUS will embolden our enemies.  But I can't help but believe that a third result will come from the rude, disrespectful treatment that the president is eliciting from our enemies and frenemies.  And as with all "hunches" I get, I'm content to let this one play out--sometimes I don't want to know.

Mirror, Mirror

Mind of his mind: 

"I think that President Medvedev is my counterpart, the president of Russia," [President] Obama said in an interview with FOX News Tuesday. "The prime minister [Vladimir Putin], who I just met today, obviously still has enormous influence." 

The U.S. president said that Medvedev and Putin are on the same page about Russian affairs, even if some think Putin is the master puppeteer controlling the president.

In spite of the denials, it's been obvious who’s pulling Medvedev’s strings. However, what about his counterpart? 

Pay attention to what's going on here--quite a few items will be slipped under the general radar today.  And pray for us here in LA who want no part of the mass rending of garments over you-know-who.

BTW, the You Tube videos recreating my Tea Party speech are up.  Drink coffee first; I bored myself.

Missiles of November

Russia takes the opportunity to test welcome President-elect Obama to the world stage.

President [Dmitry] Medvedev ordered missiles to be stationed up against Nato’s borders yesterday to counter American plans to build a missile defence shield.

Speaking within hours of Barack Obama’s election, Mr Medvedev announced that Russia would base Iskander missiles in its Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad – the former German city – next to the border with Poland.

He did not say whether the short-range missiles would carry nuclear warheads.

Taking advantage of the world’s attention on the US elections, Mr Medvedev also cancelled plans to withdraw three intercontinental ballistic missile regiments from western Russia by 2010.

In his first state-of-the-nation address, Mr Medvedev said the missiles would be deployed “to neutralise if necessary the antiballistic missile system in Europe”. He added that Russia was also ready to deploy its Navy off Kaliningrad and to install electronic jamming devices to interfere with the US shield, which relies on a radar station in the Czech Republic and ten interceptor missiles in Poland.

Well. I think that it doesn't take too much discernment to figure out that today's Presidential Daily Brief that DNI Chief Michael McConnell is conducting for the president-elect--his first top secret intelligence briefing--will have a distinctly Russian flavor.

Nato’s eastern members greeted the Russian move with dismay.

Gee, ya think?

21st Century Missile Crisis?

Peter the Great is headed for Venezuela:

Russia flexed its muscles in America’s backyard Tuesday as it sent one of its largest warships to join military exercises in the Caribbean. The nuclear-powered flagship Peter the Great set off for Venezuela with the submarine destroyer Admiral Chabanenko and two support vessels in the first Russian naval mission in Latin America since the end of the Cold War. [SNIP]

The voyage to join the Venezuelan Navy for operations came only days after Russian strategic nuclear bombers made their first visit to the country. Hugo Chavez, the President, said then that the arrival of the strike force was a warning to the U.S. The anti-American Venezuelan leader is due to visit Russian President Dmitri Medvedev in Moscow this week as part of a tour that includes visits to Cuba and China.

Peter the Great is armed with 20 nuclear cruise missiles and up to 500 surface-to-air missiles, making it one of the most formidable warships in the world. The Kremlin has courted Venezuela and Cuba as tensions with the West soared over the proposed U.S. missile shield in Eastern Europe and the Russian invasion of Georgia last month.

Missiles are equal to a missile shield in Vladimir Putin’s universe (as if the deployment of the warships has to be an equitable move on the part of the Soviets Russians).

Last week Russia deployed two TU-160 BLACKJACK strategic bombers to Venezuela in order to take part in military exercises with Hugo Chavez's forces. The bombers returned home Friday but not before they took a “stroll” around the Caribbean. Additionally, Russia is set to participate in naval exercises with Venezuela in November. So why is Russia's Navy down south right now?

The Russian military hasn’t deployed to the Western Hemisphere since the USSR broke up.

RUSSIA'S OTHER ISSUE: Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili calls for an international investigation into the origins of the Georgia-Russia conflict, saying that the West cannot allow the breakup of his country to stand. Good luck with that, Mr. President. As you well know, Russia is an old hand at manufacturing facts; creating the idea that Georgia was at fault for its own invasion and the annexation of its territory must have been like falling off of a log for our friend Vlad. In the West, we call this 'astroturfing.'

(Thanks to Hot Air)

Failing to Think Through the Propanganda

I've been pretty busy today but I had to laugh at this. CNN:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has accused the United States of orchestrating the conflict in Georgia to benefit one of its presidential election candidates.

In an exclusive interview with CNN's Matthew Chance in the Black Sea city of Sochi on Thursday, Putin said the U.S. had encouraged Georgia to attack the autonomous* region of South Ossetia.

So, Vlad, are you going to tell us which candidate you have in mind? Perhaps the one who said that he looked in your eyes and saw the letters 'K,' 'G' and 'B?' Spill it, Komrad!

See, Putin has McCain in mind, of course, but the Tsar is just yapping for the benefit of the home crowd. What he might not have suspected when he decided to float that ridiculous assertion, however, is that, were he to name McCain, it would make it more likely that McCain would become president and not less. And you know that Putin would prefer to deal with Obama.

Keeping talking, Vlad.

*Was the region autonomous when Georgia went in? Or was it still located within the internationally recognized borders of Georgia?

Georgia and Russia: Who Started What

Michael Totten:

Virtually everyone believes Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili foolishly provoked a Russian invasion on August 7, 2008, when he sent troops into the breakaway district of South Ossetia. “The warfare began Aug. 7 when Georgia launched a barrage targeting South Ossetia,” the Associated Press reported over the weekend in typical fashion.

Virtually everyone is wrong. [SNIP]

Michael talks to two regional experts who state what those who have looked a little deeper into the cause of this situation could figure out: Russia has followed in the steps of the old USSR in that it tries to keep ethnic conflicts stoked in the independent countries which used to be its vassal states. The experts that Michael talked to point out that, since the break up of the Soviet Union, Russia has tried this over and over again, starting with the Baltics.

Go ahead and read the rest.

UPDATE: Just wanted to post one of Michael's excellent photos; this one was taken in Tbilisi.

UPDATE: US delivering "devilish" aid to Georgia. Pravda.

Day-Dreaming

Consider this scenario.

1. Illegal Mexican nationals inhabit, say, Arizona to the point of being a majority; the US government does nothing about it.

2. The Mexican government allows them to retain their citizenship.

3. The Mexican Nationals try to chase all the Americans who are not of Mexican descent out of the state--aka cleansing ethnically.

4. The Americans fight back.

(Yes, I know. Some of this isn't make believe.)

What do you think the US would do if Mexico came to the aid of their countrymen?

What would it do if Arizona declared its independence from the US?

And, forgetting the fact that the US has Mexico overwhelmingly outgunned--the fact that might usually makes right--who would be morally in the right?

UPDATE: Reality mirrors fiction and turns it on its side.

Security is being heightened along the southern U.S. border because of a threat that warring Mexican cartels may send hit men into the United States, authorities said Monday.

Law enforcement officials would not discuss specific security measures being taken at the ports of entry, along the border or in the city of El Paso, Texas.

"We received credible information that drug cartels in Mexico have given permission to hit targets on the U.S. side of the border," El Paso police spokesman Officer Chris Mears said.

You don't think what has happened in the Republic of Georgia could happen here? Think again.

To Russia With Love--Or Something

Speaking of philanthropy, Georgians haven't lost their sense of humor, it seems. In response to Russian looters, Tbilisi residents set up a fine display of modern art and world-class snark in front of the city's Russian embassy (click photos to get larger versions).

"To the Russian Army from the Georgian people"

Veronica Khokhlova has the English translation from Oleg Panfilov's blog.

To the Russian embassy in Tbilisi they brought old refrigerators, toilets, rolls of toilet paper, irons, bottles of vodka, forks and spoons, clothes and other objects that [looters from the Russian army] took interest in during their visits to private houses of Georgians, state institutions, military bases and army barracks.

People are coming up to have a closer look, shake their heads, laugh. Cars that are passing by are honking...

Now that's generosity!

UPDATE:Thanks, Glenn.

NOT SO FUNNY: "Russia can have at its borders only enemies or vassals."

Russia Planted

In spite of all the talk for the last few day that Russia had agreed to pull out of Georgia, Russia plans to build 18 new check points inside of the country--with the minority of them being in South Ossetia--while Russia's Deputy Chief of General Staff Anatoly Nogovitsyn says "we're not moving." "Peacekeeping," you know.

So much for the terms of the cease-fire.

"21st Century Barbarians"

Watching the press conference, taking place in Tblisi, featuring US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Georgian President Mikhiel Saakashvili. The president is formidable and eloquent in making his case against Russia.

More later. I have yet more duties this morning, however brief.

UPDATE:

UPI:

"With the signature of the Georgian president on the cease-fire accord, all Russian troops and any irregular and paramilitary forces that entered with them must leave (Georgia) immediately," Condoleezza Rice said Friday during a news conference in Tbilisi with Saakashvili. [SNIP]

At times speaking emotionally, Saakashvili emphasized the document he signed was "a cease-fire agreement, not a final settlement," stressing that his country would rebuild.

"We are under Russian invasion and Russian occupation right now," he said. "I want the world to know that Georgia never, ever will reconcile with ... occupation."

The description 'emotional' doesn't begin to cover the Georgian president's answers this morning.

Georgia has signed the agreement. Now it's on Russia. The thing is this, however: Russia and her parent, the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics, and notorious for breaking/ignoring agreements, cease-fires and settlements alike.

UPDATE: A Russian armored Column is located 15 miles outside of Tbilisi. On the move?

By the Way

The Russian-Georgian-Ossetian-Abkhazian conflict is a tribal war, just like any such conflict on more southerly continents and should be called such. Oh the technology is more advanced and the political intrigue, strategy and subterfuge are far more elaborate, but one look at the history and you can figure it out that this conflict is fundamentally like any tribal power-grab; for example, say, that which occurred in Kenya. And, already, there are more dead bodies than was so for the Kenya conflict--the result of more efficient methods of killing. So the next time you here someone refer to "those savages in Africa murdering each other for a tribal power grabs," be sure to point to the Caucasus.

We all have the potential to be savages.

Just sayin'.

Where Are The Anti-Warriors?

I see no reports of them marching in front of the Russian Embassy in DC.

No Code: PINK.

No International ANSWER.

Antiwar.com talks about the Russia-Georgia conflict, but only to criticize the actions of the Bush Administration and hint that the war isn't "all Russia's fault."

What gives?

UPDATE: Surely the anti-warriors will be up-in-arms (so to speak) about this!

TBILISI, Georgia - Russia ordered a halt to the war in Georgia on Tuesday, after five days of air and land attacks that sent Georgia's army into headlong retreat and left towns, military bases and homes in the U.S. ally smoldering. Georgia insisted that Russian forces were still bombing and shelling.

Despite the televised order by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Russia launched an offensive Tuesday in the Kodori Gorge, the only part of the breakaway region of Abkhazia still under Georgian control, sending in tanks, armored personnel carriers and artillery.

Because War is Not the Answer!!!! Putin Medvedev (same thing) Lied! More Georgians Died! I'm sure that the human shields are headed to Abkhazia as I type this.

Rogue State (UPDATED)

Ralph Peters says, Meet the New Russia, Same as the old Soviet Union.

IT'S impossible to overstate the importance of what's un folding as we watch. Russia's invasion of Georgia - a calculated, unprovoked aggression - is a crisis that may have more important strategic implications than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

We're seeing the emergence of a rogue military power with a nuclear arsenal. [SNIP]

This is the "new" Russia announcing - in blood - that it won't tolerate freedom and self-determination along its borders. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is putting it bluntly: Today, Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine (and the Baltic states had better pay attention).

Georgia's affiliation with the European Union, its status as a would-be NATO member, its working democracy - none of it deterred Putin.

Nor does Putin's ambition stop with the former Soviet territories. His air force has been trying (unsuccessfully) to hit the new gas pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. The Kremlin is telling Europe: We not only have the power to turn off Siberian gas, we can turn off every tap in the region, any time we choose.

Peters goes on to (correctly) lambaste the initial reactions of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. On John McCain's reaction seemed commensurate to the situation.

Peters also wonders why the West seems caught off-guard by Russia's actions.

Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions. [SNIP]

[The Russians] managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets. [SNIP]

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.

Peters turns his rant-guns to the MSM and then points to the alleged fecklessness of the Bush Administration:

Just as Moscow has reverted to its old habit of sending in tanks to snuff out freedom, Washington has defaulted to form by abandoning Georgia to the invasion - after encouraging Georgia to stand up to the Kremlin.

Reminds me of 1956, when we encouraged the Hungarians to defy Moscow - then abandoned them. And of 1991, when we prodded Iraq's Shia to rise up against Saddam - then abandoned them. We've called Georgia a "friend and ally." Well, honorable men and states stand by their friends and allies. We haven't.

I think Ralph Peters is an intelligent man who has knowledge far and away above my level, along with the ability to apply that knowledge to reality. So I'm wondering how he thinks that the US could act effectively to defend Georgia while we're in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wouldn't one of these endeavors ultimately get the short end? Wouldn't some entity be abandoned?

As I've said in a few places, there are no good choices for the US in this matter--and that's sometimes the way it is.

UPDATE: Responses proposed:

America must hit where it hurts: Russia’s international prestige, an obsession of Mr. Putin’s. To begin with, we must do everything possible to see Russia’s membership in the Group of 8 industrialized nations be suspended (something the Republican presidential hopeful John McCain called for even before this crisis).

Once the fighting is over, America must step up its campaign for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. Should European countries reject the idea, America could designate them “major non-NATO allies,” along the lines of Israel and Pakistan. This would involve more American military trainers in Georgia, intelligence-sharing, joint exercises and other steps, if not a full pledge by Washington to defend the country in case of attack.

Would being booted from the G8 really hurt Russia? And if both Ukraine and Georgia are voted into NATO, what happens if Russia ignores this, remains in Georgia and moves on to Ukraine? Will the EU members of NATO change its complacency spots? More than likely they will expect the US to act, then criticize us while our troops are dying and theirs are chillin' in the rear echelon. (Disclaimer: I'm an REMF myself.)

To paraphrase Darkstar: All. Bad. Choices.

(Thanks to Hot Air)

President Bush to Russia: End This

The POTUS says what all other observers have figured out: Russia wants Georgia back.

(Thanks to Hot Air)

Russia and Georgia: Regaining What Was Lost (UPDATED: Russians Almost Take Out Saakashvili)

Georgia backs down but Russia doesn’t; Georgia wants America and NATO to step in.

The Russians want regime change--Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin compares Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili to Saddam Hussein and is angry that the US is ferrying 2000 Georgian troops home from Iraq after Saakashvili recalled them.

Russia had little to fear from NATO when considering the launch of an invasion on its former vassal state; it has Europe over a barrel (HT Rick Moran; read that, too).

Armed with wealth from oil and gas; holding a near-monopoly over the energy supply to Europe; with a million soldiers, thousands of nuclear warheads and the world’s third-largest military budget, Vladimir Putin believes that now is the time to make his move.

(Take note on the oil issue, US Congress.)

Kagan says that this war isn't really about South Ossetia--that Saakashvili’s real crime against Russia is being “president of a small, mostly democratic and adamantly pro-Western nation on the border of Putin's Russia.”

Georgia is owed protection from the US, says Big Tent Democrat at Talk Left. From that assertion, one supposes that there will be no anti-war movement spearheaded the Left this time. I guess War sometimes Is the Answer.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy goes to Tblisi and to Moscow, presumably to talk sense. Sarkozy seems to have a winning personality without being spineless, but that won’t stop this, because, for Russian, it’s all about the runaway slave states.

In all the reports and blog posts I’ve read on the topic in the past few days, one name is conspicuously missing: Dmitrij Medvedev—the Russian President. I guess we know who is wearing the pants in that marriage, as if there was any doubt.

More to follow.

UPDATE: War for Oil? Powerline:

News reports indicate that Russia may have tried to bomb the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs through Georgia. If so, the bombs missed, and flow of oil through the pipeline was not interrupted. The BTC pipeline runs from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean coast of Turkey; note Russia to the north and Iran to the south.

The pipeline is capable of pumping the equivalent of 1 million barrels a day and is the only oil conduit in the region not in Russian control. Back in 2002, when the pipeline was being built, Russia was adamantly against its construction.

For these reasons, it would be of enormous strategic benefit to Russia if it could reassert dominance over Georgia, or merely have an opportunity to demonstrate to Turkmenistan and Azerbaijain that any means of getting their petroleum products to market independent of Russia may be unreliable. These issues are a key subtext to Russia's conflict with Georgia and Georgia's desire to join NATO, and otherwise seek protection from the West.

(Thanks to Roger Kimball; read that, too. It's about Russia and Georgia and McCain and Obama.)

UPDATE: Russians take Gori while President Saakashvili makes a narrow escape from the city and, possibly, from Russian bombers (just seen on cable news).

UPDATE: Saakashvili at WSJ (HT: MTheads):

This invasion, which echoes Afghanistan in 1979 and the Prague Spring of 1968, threatens to undermine the stability of the international security system. [SNIP]

This conflict is about the future of freedom in Europe.

All Cold Warrior eyes are on the Caucasus region. Believe it.

Russia Bombs Gori, Georgia

The Russians take an offensive move, in more ways than one.

GORI, Georgia — Russian air attacks over northern Georgia intensified on Saturday morning, striking two apartment buildings in the city of Gori and clogging roads out of the area with fleeing refugees.

Russian authorities said their forces had retaken the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, from Georgian control during the morning hours. They reported that 15 Russian peacekeepers and 1,500 civilians have been killed in the conflict.

The war was allegedly was started by the Georgians, who the Russians say were ethnically cleansing the ethnic Russians from South Ossetia, the disputed region. (South Ossetians wants independence from Georgia.) But the attack on Gori is more than standing up for one's tribe; it's punishment, and not just for the South Ossetia issue. It's not as if Georgia could go toe-to-toe with Russia.

NATO is calling for a cease-fire.

(Thanks to Ed Morrisey, who waits for certain people to criticize Russia for 'air-raiding villages and killing civilians.' )

UPDATE: Are the Ukrainians helping Georgia? I wouldn't doubt it. They hate their former masters as much as the Georgians do. (Recent reason for hate: many suspect that Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by Russia's FSB; he survived but his face bears the marks of some illness/ingestion.)

Holy crap.

UPDATE: Joshua Trevino:

The real question for Georgia, then, is not whether is will win or lose — it has already lost — but how bad its loss will be. The worst case scenario is a Russian occupation and annexation. Fortunately for the Georgians, that’s also the least likely.

Trevino places the blame mostly on the Georgian president. But the Russians aren't exactly faultless.

Russia has baited the hot-tempered Georgian leader with trade and travel embargoes as well as saber-rattling. Georgia has had to tolerate a few thousand Russian troops on its soil -- only Moscow recognizes the self-declared independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And in April, Russia downed a Georgian drone over Abkhaz -- that is, Georgian -- air space. Russia in recent years has also granted citizenship to the separatists.

PREVIOUSLY:

Russia and Georgia Go To War

Russia and Georgia Go To War

The Republic of Georgia, that is. It's a border dispute--or at least on the surface it is.

CNN

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Georgia's president said Friday that his country is under attack by Russian tanks and warplanes, and he accused Russia of targeting civilians as tensions over the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia appeared to boil over into full-blown conflict.

"All day today, they've been bombing Georgia from numerous warplanes and specifically targeting (the) civilian population, and we have scores of wounded and dead among (the) civilian population all around the country," President Mikhail Saakashvili told CNN in an exclusive interview.

"This is the worst nightmare one can encounter," he said.

Asked whether Georgia and Russia were now at war, he said, "My country is in self-defense against Russian aggression. Russian troops invaded Georgia."

About 150 Russian armored vehicles have entered South Ossetia, Saakashvili said, and Georgian forces had shot down two Russian aircraft.

Russia's Defense Ministry said it sent "reinforcements" to South Ossetia to help the Russian peacekeepers already stationed there.

The events followed an emergency session of the U.N. Security Council to discuss a dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia and South Ossetia. The session ended Friday morning without a statement about the fighting.

Bloomberg:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said [while in Beijing for the Olympics] ``war has started'' over the breakaway region of South Ossetia as Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili accused its neighbor of a ``well-planned invasion.''

Saakashvili said in a Bloomberg Television interview that his nation of 4.6 million people is ``fighting to secure its borders'' amid a ``full-blown military aggression'' involving thousands of Russian troops. Aerial bombings and wide-spread fighting in and around the region killed an unknown number of civilians and wounded ``scores'' more, Saakashvili said. [snip]

Saakashvili, 40, said Russia amassed troops for months on its northern border before hostilities began.

There will be more.

Why the Russians Are PO'd (Re-edited)

Short of an all-out MAD ignition scenario, a missile shield protecting Eastern Europe would render a Russian attack on the Europe Union totally ineffective. Richard Fernandez explains how and why, reminding us that a government-culture which is still capable of disposing of an Alexander Litvinenko in such a hair-raising manner, remains capable of anything--especially when it deems that its back is to the wall.

Russia is mad because its government has this fantasy in which the West would attack it and it would retaliate, be victorious and regain its former glory. I know, I know. Why would the West want to attack Russia? That question doesn't matter. What matters it that it is convenient for the Russian government to believe that we would want to. This belief provides a premise for the conclusion that Putin's Medvedev's Russia should revert to the old Cold ways when Russia was strong. And a missile shield makes that fantasy less likely to become reality.

Richard also discusses the effect a proposed missile shield could have on Iran's nuclear dreams--basically laying out the rationale for a Russia-Iran alliance.

Nervous?

(Thanks to Instapundit)

[Re-edited for clarity; thanks to Tully]

Joining Forces? (UPDATED)

Iran tests its medium- and long-range missiles.

The US and Israel have condemned Iran after it test-fired a long range missile capable of reaching Tel Aviv.
Iran state media said nine missiles had been fired in total, including a new Shahab-3, with a range of 2,000km (1,240 miles).

Tehran has tested the missile before, but the latest launch comes amid rising tensions with the US and Israel over the country's nuclear programme. [SNIP]

The launches were intended to deter any Israeli or US strike against Tehran's nuclear installations, says BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus. [SNIP]

In the Israeli parliament, Housing Minister Ze'ev Boim said: "I suggest Israel will not talk, and Israel should prepare itself to do what is needed to do."

The White House and both American presidential candidates also condemned the Iranian test.
Describing Iran as a "great threat", the Democratic challenger, Barack Obama, called for tougher sanctions while his Republican rival, John McCain, said the test demonstrated the need for effective missile defence.

And Russia reacts badly to a proposed US missile defense shield designated to protect the Czech Republic and Poland.

The verbal spat between the US and Russia came after US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday inked an initial agreement on missile-defense deployment with the Czech government in Prague, as reported by the Associated Press.

According to Reuters, Russia's Foreign Ministry responded to the news in a statement: "If the real deployment of an American strategic missile defense shield begins close to our borders, then we will be forced to react not with diplomatic methods, but with military-technical methods."

In reaction to that statement, the US criticized Russia for its "bellicose rhetoric," which it said was meant to intimidate the European partners of the US into backing out of the defense plan, according to the BBC. [SNIP]

The US insists the shield is designed to protect against attacks from "rogue states" in the Middle East, such as Iran.

But Russia has strongly protested, saying the deployment of the US shield would threaten its security by blunting the capabilities of its own missile force.

Are we looking at the beginning of the alliance from Hell?

UPDATE: And before someone tells me that the mullahs would never work with the god-less, infidel Russians, save it. They'll join--temporarily, to be sure--with whomever they think will give them a leg up on the object of their hatred and envy: Israel.

UPDATE: More on Obama's reaction from Jim Geraghty:

On Today Show this morning, Matt Lauer asked Obama if he were president this morning, what his immediate response would be to Iran's missile tests.

I think we've got to gather up all the intelligence necessary with the situation, but there's no doubt that we're seeing rising tensions in the area.

To echo Ed, intelligence-gathering? This isn't a rumor of missile tests. U.S. systems detected and tracked at least seven of the missiles. The regime announced it on state-run TV, and showed missiles flying into the air (although perhaps it was file footage).

Don't forget what the 2008 Democrat nominee for POTUS said about how to handle Iran.

Diplomacy: Obama is the only major candidate who supports tough, direct presidential diplomacy with Iran without preconditions.

Yes, as of today, July 9, 2008, that's still his policy. He still believes that those who want to bring the return of the Mahdi can be appeased.

AIDS Alarm Unsounded Except in Africa--and Russia

Remember when the World Health Organization predicted that AIDS would become a heterosexual pandemic worldwide? Now the organization has retracted the prediction.

A quarter of a century after the outbreak of Aids, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has accepted that the threat of a global heterosexual pandemic has disappeared.

In the first official admission that the universal prevention strategy promoted by the major Aids organisations may have been misdirected, Kevin de Cock, the head of the WHO's department of HIV/Aids said there will be no generalised epidemic of Aids in the heterosexual population outside Africa.

Dr De Cock, an epidemiologist who has spent much of his career leading the battle against the disease, said understanding of the threat posed by the virus had changed. Whereas once it was seen as a risk to populations everywhere, it was now recognised that, outside sub-Saharan Africa, it was confined to high-risk groups including men who have sex with men, injecting drug users, and sex workers and their clients

(And no, considering the name of the physician, I'm not sure that WHO isn't trying to prank the world.)

James Taranto notes the many ominous cries of panic regard heterosexual AIDS since the 1980s and wonders whether there will be a similar reversal of opinion with regard to Global Warming twenty-five years hence.

One thing I found noteworthy in the Independent report is that Russians have a high rate of infection HIV (1%)--the identical rate of that in South Africa in 1991. Seventeen years later, South Africa's rate is 25%.

WHO attributes Russia's rate mostly to the large and growing amount of IV drug-users. That fits with this report on Russian "hypermortality, where, between AIDS, alcohol, cigarettes, drugs, avoidance of healthcare and abortion rates, the citizenry appears to be committing mass suicide.

Is this the inevitable final comedown of a wholly atheistic society?

(Thanks to James Joyner)

MORE ON MASS SUICIDE: In...Japan.

Since 1998, when it nearly doubled in a year, Japan’s suicide rate has remained among the developed world’s highest. (Although, arguably, not as high as it is sometimes portrayed as being, with over 30,000 people taking their own lives every year so far this decade.) Recently, suicide in groups, usually by means of a charcoal stove in an enclosed car in a remote park, has been on the rise, with participants usually meeting on line. More recently, suicide has taken a turn toward being a public health problem of the sort normally only considered in areas where the threat of a suicide bombing is a reality: hydrogen sulfide gas and other noxious gasses emerged as a new trend in suicide earlier this year, with people in hotel rooms or other densely populated areas killing themselves, then taking others with them as the gas spread throughout the building or emergency workers tried to rescue them.

I'd call it post-war depression. The war in question is World War II.

"Change" of Power in Russia (UPDATED: Duma Vote)

Russia's new president, Dmitri Medvedev, was sworn in today, while the old one, our friend Vladimir Putin, retreats...or something...into the prime minister's slot.

It looks almost like a wedding, Massachusetts-style, no? Well if it were, there'd be little doubt as to which one was the groom.

Putin, a former KGB leader who had presided over Russia's economic revival while consolidating power, rolling back civil liberties and leading a government beset with corruption, arrived at the ceremony alone and before Medvedev.

He stepped from a black limousine and briefly stood before the ceremonial Presidential Regiment, which was standing outside in the chill. "Greetings, comrades!" he said, and was met with a deep, rousing cheer. [SNIP]

Putin said that he had lived up to his promise, made eight years ago, to serve the country and its citizens faithfully.

The remarks appeared to presage Putin's continued hand on Russian power. "It is extremely important for everyone together to continue the course that has already been taken and has justified itself," he said.

Only then did Medvedev, 42, approach the lectern, rest his hand on a copy of the Russian Constitution, and utter the oath of office. [SNIP]

Minutes later, Putin accompanied the new president outside to review the passing formations of the ceremonial regiment. When the two men left the dais after the last platoon passed, it was on cue from Putin, not Medvedev, who followed the former president's lead.

The ceremony was brief. But the leaders' paired comments, and Putin's physical dominance of each ceremonial stage, neatly framed the central questions about what the inauguration will mean for Russia's politics and direction.

Between the commies over there and our own ascendant socialists, one wonders whether anyone reads history books anymore. I'd say 'no.'

The sad thing is that some of our countrymen on the Left probably expect George Bush--who probably has pleasant visions of Getting Out of Dodge DC forever dancing in his head every night right about now--to behave in this manner when his allotted presidential time is up. No, Leftists, this is what your side does best and most often.

UPDATE: The Duma blesses the marriage.

Russia’s Parliament overwhelmingly confirmed Vladimir V. Putin as prime minister on Thursday, completing a carefully managed departure from the presidency in a manner that left him the country’s dominant politician and with a clear grip on power.

Mr. Putin, out of office less than 26 hours, received 392 votes in the 450-seat Duma, Parliament’s lower house.

Well, with the vote not being unanimous, the process at least appears to be a democratic one.

Because appearance is all that really counts.

NATO to Expand? (UPDATE: Yes and No)

As President Bush visits Ukraine on his way to Bucharest, Romania to attend his final NATO summit before leaving office, Stephen Green asks some pertinent questions regarding the prospect of former Soviet republics joining NATO--questions like this one: what would NATO do if Russia attacks one of them?

NATO isn’t a defensive alliance anymore. It’s a club. It’s a very nice club of very nice countries, and it even has a very nice clubhouse — er, headquarters — in Belgium. But it’s an alliance without a plan...[SNIP]

And while it probably wouldn’t hurt to let in a couple more members, two questions need to be asked. What would they contribute? And what would be our responsibilities?

As one might imagine, Russian (President? Prime Minister?) Vladimir Putin isn’t thrilled about the prospect of a NATO-allied Ukraine, etc., but for different reasons than those of the Vodkapundit, even threatening “to point nuclear weapons toward Ukraine if it establishes NATO bases in the country.” (That Vlad is such a card, no? Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko certain thinks so. You remember him, don’t you?)

The way Putin has been behaving lately—as if he misses the old days--answers at least one of Stephen’s implicit questions; that is, against which enemy would NATO cast itself on behalf of, say, the NATO-aligned Republic of Georgia? Bigger questions loom from there, however. Other than the US and the Brits, would NATO really go to bat for Ukraine? And even if it did, what would the repercussions be? And…

You know things were far more simple twenty-five years ago.

(Thanks to Instapundit)

AFTERTHOUGHT: And it is one indeed. Russia will have a new president soon: Dmitry Medvedev. The most fun thing about him so far is listening to non-Russian speakers attempt to pronounce his last name.

UPDATE: NATO say no to Bush.

President Bush suffered a painful diplomatic setback Wednesday when NATO allies rebuffed his passionate pleas to put former Soviet republics Ukraine and Georgia on the path toward membership in the Western military alliance.

The decision, to be made final on Thursday, was sure to be cheered by Moscow, which heatedly opposes NATO's eastward expansion.

In another sign of discord, Greece blocked Macedonia's request to join the 26-nation alliance because of a dispute over its name. Only Croatia and Albania will be invited as new members

He Knows When You are Sleeping

And speaking of communists and messiahs...

Yesterday--in honor of Russian President Vladimir Putin's 55th birthday--Pajamas Media featured some translations of Putin jokes, from the Russian, of course. The flavor of jokes indicates that the Russian people have to deal with their own version of a wannabe earthly savior. Some examples:

Putin can scratch his own heel without bending over.

Shirts worn by Putin are sent to a secret military facility and converted to the strongest layer of armor for the Russian tanks.

Putin’s used tissues become the property of the Department of Cartography and their content is classified.

In the movies, Putin’s part is usually played by his twin brother Chuck Norris.

Putin can power up a microphone with his stare and shut down the Windows Media Player with his voice.

Once a month the full moon howls at Putin.

Putin, who is constitutionally required to step down as president for at least one term, is reputed to be maneuvering to become Russia's Prime Minister. Again. But there is at least one group which advocates that Putin remains president. Not so funny.

Braggarts

"Water's cold."

"Deep, too."