The Liberal Bubble--A Primer (KingShamus)

Pauline Kael, the famous New Yorker film critic, is probably just as notable these days for her insulated leftism as her movie reviews.  Back in 1972, many Democrats were shocked that Richard Nixon was re-elected over the great progressive hero George McGovern.  But few lefties expressed their haughty dismay quite like Ms. Kael.

 

‘I live in a rather special world. I only know one person who voted for Nixon. Where they are I don’t know. They’re outside my ken. But sometimes when I’m in a theater I can feel them.'

 

Remember that Ms. Kael said this in 1972.  The ideological bubble that wraps the left in a protective husk of ignorance has been around for at least 40 years, and probably for a lot longer.  When conservatives ponder how to argue with progressives, it's important to recognize just how established this intellectual tradition is within American liberalism.

 

Fast forward to now.  Leftists will sometimes wonder how their expectations often--unexpectedly!--don't mesh with reality.  More narrowly, progressives will occasionally ponder why Red State Americans aren't more reasonable, secular, intelligent and cool, like the hip folks on the left.  They'll cite surveys that say the American people agree with them on this issue or that candidate, then crow about it for a while until the next shiny new data point rolls across their talking points radar screen. 

 

But what polls are liberals paying attention to? 

 

First, let’s look at CBS’ lead on the new poll numbers, which they tout as good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Mitt Romney:

President Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters in Ohio and Florida – and has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania – according to a Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning.

The poll, conducted from July 24-30, shows Mr. Obama leading his presumptive Republican challenger 53 percent to 42 percent in Pennsylvania. The 11-point lead results largely from independents, who favor the president by 22 points, and women, who favor the president by 24 points.

Mr. Obama holds a six-point lead in Ohio, 50 percent to 44 percent, a state where he holds a campaign event later today. His lead here is also due in large part to women, who back him by a 21-point margin. Romney leads by ten points among Ohio men, and seven points among Ohio whites.

In Florida, Mr. Obama also holds a six point lead, 51 percent to 45 percent. He holds a small lead among both men and women and a 19-point lead among Hispanics, while Romney leads by double-digits among whites and voters age 65 and above.

On the surface, this doesn't look good for Mitt Romney.  It could be cause for concern among Republican voters.  It could conceivably be a sign that the GOP will have to drastically change their tactics and strategies in order to secure victory in November.

 

On the other hand, dig the party affiliation of the people polled.

Now let’s take a look at the partisan breakdown (D/R/I) in the sample data for each state, and compare them to 2008 and 2010 exit polling:

• Florida: CBS/NYT 36/27/32,  2008 37/34/29,   2010 36/36/29
• Ohio: CBS/NYT 35/27/32,  2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28
• Pennsylvania: CBS/NYT 38/32/26,  2008 44/37/18,  2010 40/37/23

According to the NYT/CBS poll, Barack Obama is beating Romney by 6% in Florida using a survey that gives Democrats a 9 point edge over the GOP. 

 

In 2008, when Obama won the state over John McCain, Democrats had a three point edge.  In 2010, a year that saw the GOP pick up the governorship and retain a US Senate seat in a topsy-turvy three way race, the two parties were tied at 36%.

 

The Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll is skewed in a way that doesn't even sorta reflect reality in the Sunshine State.  The governor of Florida is a Republican.  The Florida state senate is controlled by Republicans.  The Florida state house is controlled by Republicans.  The state's US Senate delegation is split, but the US House of Representatives delegation is majority Republican.  

 

This would seem to suggest that many Floridians are quite comfortable with the GOP.  It would also suggest that a nine point Democrat edge in party identification is kinda crazy.  Even adjusting for the often mercurial whims of voters on Election Day, a state population that has elected so many Republicans probably can't have a voter base that skews Democrat by almost ten percent.

 

Two quick reminders:  Who reads the New York Times and watches CBS News?  Liberals.  Who doesn't get their news from those two sources?  Conservatives.

 

And now you see how a left-wing intellectual bubble is created and maintained.

 

The NYT/CBS/Quinnipiac poll was not meant to elucidate the readers and watchers of these MSM news outlets.  It was not created to help illustrate a possible voter trend.  No, the poll was taken for no other reason than to buck up sagging Democratic voters in the media and other lefty enclaves.  

 

Let's go back to Florida for a moment.  Think about a poll where the party identifcation numbers split the difference between the 2008 and 2010 figures.  There might be a few more independents, and a few less of the two major parties, but it sure as hell wouldn't have a nine point Donkey Puncher edge. 

 

The problem is a realistic poll in Florida wouldn't give Obama a six point lead in that vital swing state.  It would instead display in vivid detail how badly the commander-in-chief is getting his ass kicked by Mitt Romney in the Sunshine State.  And we can't have Democrats getting emo in the months leading up to re-electing President Pitching Wedge.    

 

Now, I don't have necessarily have a problem with left-wingers trying to buck up the spirits of their fellow statists.  Robust confidence is almost always more appealing than dour pessimism.  But liberals should recognize the difference between the cheerleading propaganda they create for their Outer Party members and the real world.  Increasingly, it seems like progressives have put strapped the industrial strength blinders on because they can't handle the bad news they've brought onto themselves.   

Comments

[Steve Skubinna]

Leftists will sometimes wonder how their expectations often--unexpectedly!--don't mesh with reality.

You have it backwards. In such cases the progressives are shocked that reality refuses to conform to their preferences. They are like the economist in the joke who says "Of course it works in practice. The important question is, will it work in theory?"

[KingShamus]

Good point.

There's a reason why conservatives call progressives the 'community-based reality'.