Rogue State (UPDATED)

Ralph Peters says, Meet the New Russia, Same as the old Soviet Union.

IT'S impossible to overstate the importance of what's un folding as we watch. Russia's invasion of Georgia - a calculated, unprovoked aggression - is a crisis that may have more important strategic implications than Iraq and Afghanistan combined.

We're seeing the emergence of a rogue military power with a nuclear arsenal. [SNIP]

This is the "new" Russia announcing - in blood - that it won't tolerate freedom and self-determination along its borders. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is putting it bluntly: Today, Georgia, tomorrow Ukraine (and the Baltic states had better pay attention).

Georgia's affiliation with the European Union, its status as a would-be NATO member, its working democracy - none of it deterred Putin.

Nor does Putin's ambition stop with the former Soviet territories. His air force has been trying (unsuccessfully) to hit the new gas pipeline running from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean. The Kremlin is telling Europe: We not only have the power to turn off Siberian gas, we can turn off every tap in the region, any time we choose.

Peters goes on to (correctly) lambaste the initial reactions of Barack Obama and George W. Bush. On John McCain's reaction seemed commensurate to the situation.

Peters also wonders why the West seems caught off-guard by Russia's actions.

Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions. [SNIP]

[The Russians] managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets. [SNIP]

Make no mistake: Moscow intends to dismember Georgia.

Peters turns his rant-guns to the MSM and then points to the alleged fecklessness of the Bush Administration:

Just as Moscow has reverted to its old habit of sending in tanks to snuff out freedom, Washington has defaulted to form by abandoning Georgia to the invasion - after encouraging Georgia to stand up to the Kremlin.

Reminds me of 1956, when we encouraged the Hungarians to defy Moscow - then abandoned them. And of 1991, when we prodded Iraq's Shia to rise up against Saddam - then abandoned them. We've called Georgia a "friend and ally." Well, honorable men and states stand by their friends and allies. We haven't.

I think Ralph Peters is an intelligent man who has knowledge far and away above my level, along with the ability to apply that knowledge to reality. So I'm wondering how he thinks that the US could act effectively to defend Georgia while we're in Iraq and Afghanistan. Wouldn't one of these endeavors ultimately get the short end? Wouldn't some entity be abandoned?

As I've said in a few places, there are no good choices for the US in this matter--and that's sometimes the way it is.

UPDATE: Responses proposed:

America must hit where it hurts: Russia’s international prestige, an obsession of Mr. Putin’s. To begin with, we must do everything possible to see Russia’s membership in the Group of 8 industrialized nations be suspended (something the Republican presidential hopeful John McCain called for even before this crisis).

Once the fighting is over, America must step up its campaign for NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. Should European countries reject the idea, America could designate them “major non-NATO allies,” along the lines of Israel and Pakistan. This would involve more American military trainers in Georgia, intelligence-sharing, joint exercises and other steps, if not a full pledge by Washington to defend the country in case of attack.

Would being booted from the G8 really hurt Russia? And if both Ukraine and Georgia are voted into NATO, what happens if Russia ignores this, remains in Georgia and moves on to Ukraine? Will the EU members of NATO change its complacency spots? More than likely they will expect the US to act, then criticize us while our troops are dying and theirs are chillin' in the rear echelon. (Disclaimer: I'm an REMF myself.)

To paraphrase Darkstar: All. Bad. Choices.

(Thanks to Hot Air)

Comments

[Casey]

I'd really like to know what Peters was smoking when he wrote that.

First, while it might have taken the US weeks "Just to line up the airlift sorties," he seems to be unaware of the simple fact that Georgia borders on Russia. They need no airlift or sealift, and can work directly from Russian soil.

This is not to say that Russia hasn't committed an act of aggression, but twisting things around, pounding the table, and calling for action, NOW!! isn't useful.

[Tully]

I think that some of the obvious is being intentionally ignored by Peters.

MOST Southern Ossetians have Russian citizenship and passports, and SO has been clamoring for full independence from Georgia since the breakup of the USSR. They have had de facto autonomy under a Soviet-influenced separatist admin for the last fifteen years, along with an uneasy truce with georgia.

The border flare-up was almost certainly orchestrated by Moscow with the willing assistance of the SO "independent" separatist government. Moscow (and most of the residents of SO) would rather have SO as part of the Moscow hegemony than as part of Georgia.

Further Russian motivations can be seen in the destruction of the oil port of Poti and the hits on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which are far removed from SO.

Primary conclusion: The Russian assault was meant to cement the practical severing of SO from Georgia and the addition of SO the Russian hegemony.

Secondary conclusions: The striking of the pipeline and port of Poti impact not only Georgia, but Azerbijan and Kazakhstan, restricting the flow of oil from those two breakaway nations. This advantages both Iran and Russia. Russia (and Iran) will follow through with pressure for new Iran/Russian pipeline construction through the eastern Caspian, which would serve both Russia and Iran. In addition, an eastern Caspian pipeline would place Iranian, Kazakhstani, and Turkmenistani production exports under Russian "gatekeeper" control while depriving Georgia, Azerbijan, and Turkey of those oil transport revenues.

Assumption: The attack was on Georgia, but the real long-term prize is the re-capture of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan into the Soviet econo-political hegemnoy with the establishment of an eastern-Caspian oil corridor running into Russia, feeding from the massive Iranian, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan gas/oil fields, placing the flow/production of same under Russian control.

Hey, they're paranoid, plotting, and controlling, not stupid.

[baldilocks]

I'm using your comment to make a point in a new post, Tully.

[Tully]

There are other strategic considerations, but VD Hanson has already hit those.

(Tangential: DRILL, dammit! The best way to reduce foreign influence on our energy supplies is to better develop our own.)

[baldilocks]

"DRILL, dammit!"

Amen, brother.

[Rachel]

Peters also seems to forget that Mr. S decided to raid SO. That's what started it. Also, even if we weren't involved in either Iraq or Afghanistan, do people really think there would be a military action against Russia?

[Mike]

More to the point of Russia being the same as the old USSR, look at the way Prime Minister Putin treats the "president" of Russia. In one of the first meetings between the two, Putin sat in his old chair, the plush one labeled President, and Medvedyev sat in one of the small visitor chairs...in his own conference room!!!

Like McCain says, the letters K-G-B are what everyone should see when they look in Putin's eyes!

[tioedong]

both you and Peters ignore the logistics of the US sending troops: It's not because they are at war, but because we can't send them there fast enough.

That said, notice that Merkel is glad to offer NATO to Georgia? But Merkel's Germany has done squat in Afghanistan...so essentially she is offering support for the US to go in.

As for comments re: the USSR: actually, its the old czarist Russia too...read history.
Which is why Poland quickly signed onto getting anti missile missiles: They remember not only USSR but Catherine the "great"...

[Steve P]

Georgia is connected to Russia with a mountain range in between, with a single narrow valley and pass allowing ground travel. South Ossetia is part of Georgia, so Georgia did not "invade" South Ossetia. Georgia's mistake was attacking the main city in SO instead of blocking and protecting that pass to the north. Russia would have had a much harder time attacking, with much fewer excuses if they had done so. Georgia was being attacked daily with rockets and mortars supplied by Russia to SO separatists. They wanted it to stop, but again, the way to do that was to cut off the supply route, not attack the city.
The G8 has done little since adding Russia, as Russia blocks anything substantive. Technically Russia no longer qualifies to be part of the G8 as it is supposedly an organization of Democratic, capitalistic nations.