Why the Russians Are PO'd (Re-edited)

Short of an all-out MAD ignition scenario, a missile shield protecting Eastern Europe would render a Russian attack on the Europe Union totally ineffective. Richard Fernandez explains how and why, reminding us that a government-culture which is still capable of disposing of an Alexander Litvinenko in such a hair-raising manner, remains capable of anything--especially when it deems that its back is to the wall.

Russia is mad because its government has this fantasy in which the West would attack it and it would retaliate, be victorious and regain its former glory. I know, I know. Why would the West want to attack Russia? That question doesn't matter. What matters it that it is convenient for the Russian government to believe that we would want to. This belief provides a premise for the conclusion that Putin's Medvedev's Russia should revert to the old Cold ways when Russia was strong. And a missile shield makes that fantasy less likely to become reality.

Richard also discusses the effect a proposed missile shield could have on Iran's nuclear dreams--basically laying out the rationale for a Russia-Iran alliance.

Nervous?

(Thanks to Instapundit)

[Re-edited for clarity; thanks to Tully]

Comments

[Tully]

I would venture to say that it isn't so much the threat of the West attacking Russia, as the West being able to shield Eastern Europe from being attacked BY Russia.

While the situation has changed over the last twenty years, a primary if unspoken objection of the USSR to missile shields was always that the West could prevent Russia from retaliating against breakaway satellite republics--especially those that had Soviet nuclear weapons and facilities in them.

[baldilocks]

I would venture to say that it isn't so much the threat of the West attacking Russia, as the West being able to shield Eastern Europe from being attacked BY Russia.

Right. But my point is why this is so: that Russia already has a pre-determined strawman reason for attacking the West. Otherwise why would they care about the shield?

[Francis W. Porretto]

In James Fallows's 1978 book National Defense, he makes the case - supported by testimony from some Soviet army officer whose name I've lost - that the Russians are historically disposed to fear invasion. And in sober truth, they've suffered a few such unwelcome visits from armed neighbors. Their major military institutions apparently spend quite a bit of time on the subject of coping with and repelling an invading army.

Perhaps a missile shield threatens their sense of ability to deter such an invasion. But equally, a missile shield cuts their land forces loose from the threat of nuclear reinforcement - which makes the use of battlefield nuclear weapons an effective counter to a Russian tank invasion of nations to its west. As a few of those nations are doing rather better than Mother Russia, it would not surprise me unduly if the Putin regime were entertaining notions about recreating the Soviet satellite empire.

[baldilocks]

Hi Fran!

Yes to all.

[MC]

Yikes! Combine this post with the one just below and I'm not sure how I'm going to sleep tonight. I hate depending on the sanity of paranoid people for my safety.

(looks for teddy bear.)

[Tully]

But my point is why this is so: that Russia already has a pre-determined strawman reason for attacking the West.

Ah. Personally I have always thought that Russian paranoia and a lust for empire has pretty much defined their military thought throughout history, regardless of their form of government. As in, there has never been a good time to be a close neighbor of Mother Russia.